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19.05.2014Development and Inequality at the Local Level

Public policies, targeted at lowering poverty, should concentrate on employment and not on income levels.

Petar Ganev

Despite being quite intriguing the data concerning poverty and inequality on the local level are often overlooked. It is widely known that every fifth Bulgarian lives below the poverty line, but regional differences are mostly ignored – for example in Vidin and Sliven this is the case for practically every third person. What’s more – every district has its own poverty line, which is formed by the median income in the district itself, in other words – this is the measure of the relative poverty levels in each separate district. The poverty line in Vidin is almost two times lower than the one in Sofia. Despite that the relative share of people below it is two times larger. Does this imply that the development of a given district leads to decreasing income inequality and vice-versa – does the lack of development lead to higher income inequality?

The poverty line in Bulgaria is a relative measure of poverty. Thus it is also a measure of inequality, since it is determined by the median income levels. Simply put – a poor person is someone whose income is lower than the income of others. Despite all the conditionality that the regional data on income and inequality levels suggest, the overview of the situation in Bulgarian districts gives a more or less affirmative answer to the questions above. Richer districts, where GDP per capita levels are higher, are usually the ones where fewer people live below the district’s relative poverty line. This also holds true for local inequality, measured by the ratio between the income of the richest and poorest 20% of households in those districts. This ratio varies from 3.5 in Blagoevgrad to over 10.0 in Vidin, Pazardzhik and Sliven.

In both cases there are examples of poor districts, where income inequality is relatively low. However, there are hardly any examples of rich districts, where income inequality is high. For instance, Kardzhali and Lovech are poor districts, where income inequality is low. Stara Zagora is an example of a relatively rich district, where inequality is high. The overall view, however, doesn’t suggest a negative correlation between better economic development and rising inequality. These observations for the most part also hold true when we look at the Gini coefficient at the local level.

If we replace GDP per capita indicator with employment ratios, the correlation is even clearer. The assumption that higher employment leads to lower inequality is confirmed by the data. What’s even more interesting is that there is a strong correlation between the employment ratios and the poverty line itself – more jobs lead to higher median income levels, while also reducing the share of people living below that line. This is another argument that leads us to conclude that the focus of policies, targeted at reducing poverty should be on creating more jobs and not on income policies. The latter usually includes not only income redistribution, but also labor market interventions, which despite aiming to help the employed, actually drive the price of labor up and hinder job creation, especially in poorer districts.

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17.03.2014IME presented the English edition of Regional Profiles 2013

The event was attended by representatives of leading foreign embassies and chambers of commerce and industry.

The IME presented the English version of the study “Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development 2013” on March 11th, 2014. The event was attended by representatives of leading foreign embassies and chambers of commerce and industry.

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20.02.2014Multidimensional Analysis of Regional Development 2013

The goal of the multidimensional analysis of regional development using neural networks – Cohonen Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) is to review and analyze the overall socio-economic development of Bulgarian districts in the 2008-2011 period.

Aleksander Tsvetkov, Ph.D, Regiostat

 

The goal of the multidimensional analysis of regional development using neural networks – Cohonen Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) is to review and analyze the overall socio-economic development of Bulgarian districts in the 2008-2011 period, using a wide variety of indicators, grouped in seven categories: economy, infrastructure, demographics, education, healthcare, environment, social environment.

Two “fake regions” have been established for the purpose of this analysis. One is a “perfect” region, which scores best (has the highest marks) in all indicators at the same time. The other one is a “worst” region, which has the lowest marks. These “fake regions” are used as reference points and benchmarks for assessing the development of the 28 regions during this period. After the analysis, the districts have been grouped into clusters, formed by Cohonen’s self-organizing maps. This presents an overview of the development of the districts throughout the entire period, by visualizing the degree of dissimilarities between the regions, their development trends – whether they are negative or positive, as well as their cohesion.

The main conclusion of the analysis is that there is no evident cohesion between the districts. To the contrary – there is one district, Sofia (capital), which significantly differs from the others in its socio-economic development. What’s more – the gap between Sofia (capital) and the other districts keeps growing. In practice, there is no visible result from the regional development policy that the government should try and implement.

The overall socio-economic state of Sofia (capital) is the highest of all the districts, which can be seen by its proximity to the “perfect region”. The districts Blagoevgrad and Varna are also close, but despite their good overall condition, they are far less developed than the capital. This conclusion is confirmed by the colour on the border between the cluster of Sofia (capital) and the other two districts – highly saturated color, that implies significant differences.

  • Sofia (capital) has the best developed economy of all Bulgarian districts, followed by Varna. The weakest economic development is observed in the districts Silistra, Razgrad and Vidin.
  • Sofia (capital) also has the best developed infrastructure, especially in the end of the period (2010 and 2011).
  • Vidin, Lovech and Montana have the worst demographic state during the entire period, while Gabrovo demonstrates pronounced worsening trends.
  • The regions with worst-developed education systems are Sliven, Targovishte, Razgrad and Silistra.
  • Stara Zagora has both the best healthcare systems and worst state of the environment during the entire period.
  • Unlike the other categories (economy, for instance), the social environment indicators have more pronounced dynamics. The color saturation on the map demonstrates negative development trends in the most regions, for example – Blagoevgrad, Sofia (capital), Gabrovo, Ruse, Stara Zagora and so on. In practice, Smolyan had the best social environment in the country for 2011, what’s more the positive trend is present during the entire period.

The full text of the analysis and all Cohonen maps are available here.

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06.02.2014Roundtable discussion: "Challenges of the socio-economic development of Bulgarian districts."

On February 6th 2014 the Institute for Market Economics organized a round table discussion, as part of the project “Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development”, carried out with the financial support of the America for Bulgaria Foundation. The discussion was attended by experts from public administration and NGOs, academics and professionals in the fields of regional development and statistics.

On February 6th 2014 the Institute for Market Economics organized a round table discussion, as part of the project “Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development”, carried out with the financial support of the America for Bulgaria Foundation.

The discussion was attended by experts from public administration and NGOs, academics and professionals in the fields of regional development and statistics.

After a brief presentation of the main findings of the recently published second edition of the study, the participants were invited to share their thoughts on key regional development issues and to make recommendations regarding the focus of the upcoming 2014 edition of the study.

The IME team would like to thank all the experts, who attended the discussion. Their comments and recommendations are of key importance for the preparation of the upcoming third edition of the study "Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development".

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14.12.2013IME Presented Recommendations for Fighting Corruption in Kyustendil

On December 11th, 2013 the IME economists Desislava Nikolova and Petar Ganev visited Kyustendil in response to an invitation of the district’s governor Ivan Karakashki.

On December 11th, 2013 the IME economists Desislava Nikolova and Petar Ganev visited Kyustendil in response to an invitation of the district’s governor Ivan Karakashki.

Photo:  Vladi Vladimirov, Darik - Kyustendil

The economists presented the results of a study of corruption perception in the Kyustendil district and the country, which is part of the publication " Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development 2013 ".

Kyustendil is one of the districts with the highest corruption perception levels. Businesses give an average evaluation of 2.5, while the average for the country is - 3.4. The lower the score, the higher corruption perceptions are. Citizens give 2.37, while the average for Bulgaria is 2.67.

IME presented 11 recommendations to combat corruption aimed at increasing transparency and efficiency of local administrations, while involving citizens and businesses in the process.

The event was covered in several local media outlets:

  • Darik Radio Kyustendil
  • Struma.com
  • Kyustendil News
  • Vyaranews.com
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02.12.2013The Labor Market Keeps Struggling

After two consecutive quarters of growth on annual basis, the number of people employed once again decreased in the third quarter of 2013.

Yavor Aleksiev, Borislav Tonchev*

In the third quarter of 2013 the number of employed people decreased slightly on an annual basis after two consecutive quarters of growth in the first half of the year. In June-August 2013 the employees are 5000 less than in the same period in 2012.

However, in most districts (16 out of 28) there is an increase in the number of the employees on an annual basis. Some of the most interesting labor market trends in the third quarter are represented below:

  • Compared to the same quarter of last year, the Northwest and the South Central are the best performing regions on the labor market. In these two regions all districts record an increase in the number of the employees on an annual basis.
  • In the third quarter, the employment rate in four regions of Northern Bulgaria remains below 40%. These are Vidin (38,6%), Lovech (39,1%), Razgrad (39,4%) and Silistra (38,4%).
  • The largest increase of the number employed people on an annual basis is observed in Varna (10,700), Sofia (7,700) and Pazardzhik (5,600). On the other hand, the largest decline is registered in Stara Zagora (-15,700), Blagoevgrad (-9,500) and Yambol (-4,800).
  • The greatest increase in percentage terms in the number of employees is in Montana (8,4%), Vidin (6,2%) and Varna (5,7%). The greatest decline is in Stara Zagora (-11,3%), Targovishte (-9,2%) and Silistra (-9,0%).

Methodology of the results: In the majority of the regions the recovery of the labor market began in 2011. We use both the number of employees and the employment rate of the population over the age of 15 in order to monitor the recovery process during the period from the first quarter of 2010 till the third quarter of 2013. The tables, that precede the analysis of each statistical region, are intended to illustrate the existence of clear trends in the dynamic of the number of employees in the local economy annually. For this purpose, the second consecutive quarter of increase in the number of employees on an annual basis is highlighted in green, and every second consecutive quarter of decline in the number of employees on an annual basis - in red.

Northwest region

For the first time since 2010, the Northwest region has shown a steady increase (two consecutive quarters) in the number of employees on an annual basis. In the third quarter of 2013, the number of employed people increased in all districts compared to the same period of last year. The trends remain most clearly positive in Vidin and Pleven. An important change of direction is observed in Lovech, where there is a break, be it moderate, in the trend of annual decrease in the number of employees after 10 consecutive quarters of decline. Positive trends are recorded in Montana and Vratsa, although employment rate in both districts remains among the lowest in the country.

North Central region

Gabrovo is the only district in this region, which has had a sustainable increase in the number of employees since the summer of 2012. The district is also a leader with 49,6% employment rate during the third quarter of 2013. This sustainable growth in the number of the employees does not apply for the other four districts. Razgrad and Silistra remain two of the four districts in the whole country with an employment rate lower than 40%. In two of the last three quarters, the number of employees in Ruse falls below 90,000 compared to 105,000 in 2010.

Northeast region

For a third consecutive quarter, the employment rate in the Northeast region is increasing, mainly due to the significant increase in the number of employees during the summer months in Varna. For the first time since the summer of 2010, the number of employees in the largest district in the region approaches 200,000 people. Fairly stable is the labor market in Dobrich, which registers the highest employment rate in the region in the last two quarters due to the growing seasonal trends in the local labor market over the past three years. Since the beginning of 2012, Targovishte can’t escape from the cycle of steadily declining number of employees annually. Thus, the employment rate of that district is the lowest in the last quarter compared to the others in the region - only 41.1%.

Southwest region

The employment rate in the Southwest region has been steadily declining for three consecutive quarters. Sofia City district and Sofia district are the two districts that are exceptions to the region for the third quarter of 2013. However, they fail to offset the decline in the others, although 75% of employees across the region work in them. Only in the capital there is a steady growth in employment rate and it remains the highest (56.5%) in the country. The sharpest decline in the number of employees is in Blagoevgrad - 6.3% on annually basis.

South Central region

The number of employees in all districts of the South Central region has increased on an annual basis for the third consecutive quarter. In the third quarter of 2013, the number of employed people in this region exceeded 600,000 for the first time since the summer of 2010. Compared to the same period last year, the most remarkable growth in employment is recorded in Pazardjik and Haskovo. Although the employment rate in both districts remains below the average for the region, persistent trends in the labor market are of paramount importance, because over 35% of the employees in the whole region work there. The good data for Pazardzhik means that employment rate has reached its bottom at the end of last year, while the average index for 2013 will report values above 40%. The sustained job growth in Plovdiv and Smolyan last year, and the traditionally strong last quarters of the year in these districts, give reasons for further increase in employment rate at the end of the year.

Southeast region

There is a minimal decline in the number of employees in Burgas in the third quarter of 2013 on an annual basis, after five consecutive quarters of growth. At the same time the strong first two quarters of the year and the increasing resilience of the labor market in the winter months’ trend in recent years make reaching the highest levels of average employment in the region since 2008 a viable expectation.

The collapse of employment in Stara Zagora is surprising with regard to the good 2012 for the whole region, but is understandable against the background of lay-offs taken in a number of businesses in the district this year. Since the last quarter of 2012, the employed people in the district have been at least 10,000 less than during the same quarters of the previous year. The incurred and the expected cuts in healthcare and energy systems as well as the conclusion of construction activities surrounding “Trakia” highway had a negative impact on employment across the region.

Only Sliven district manages to maintain its employment growth, which began in the previous quarter, while Yambol struggles.

 

*Borislav Tonchev is an intern at IME

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14.11.2013Presenting "Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development 2013"

Presenting "Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development 2013" The study was presented on November 14th 2013.

The study "Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development 2013" (Bulgarian version) presents the social and economic development of bulgarian districts. The study is based on 58 indicators, divided into eight categories: Economy, Administration and Taxes, Infrastructure, Demography, Education, Healthcare, Environment and Social Environment. A seperate profile of each of the districts can be found on our webpage.

The English version of the study will be available in January 2014 and will include all of the available analysis and data.

Some of the analysis included in the study show:

  • What makes some district rich and prosperous and others - poor?
  • Which local labor markets are recovering the fastest?
  • Which districts are attractive to investors?
  • What are the demographic tendencies in the seperate districts?
  • In which district the population is most satisfied?
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