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Aleksander Tsvetkov, Ph.D, Regiostat

The goal of the multidimensional analysis of regional development using neural networks – Cohonen Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) is to review and analyze the overall socio-economic development of Bulgarian districts in the 2008-2011 period, using a wide variety of indicators, grouped in seven categories: economy, infrastructure, demographics, education, healthcare, environment, social environment.

Two “fake regions” have been established for the purpose of this analysis. One is a “perfect” region, which scores best (has the highest marks) in all indicators at the same time. The other one is a “worst” region, which has the lowest marks. These “fake regions” are used as reference points and benchmarks for assessing the development of the 28 regions during this period. After the analysis, the districts have been grouped into clusters, formed by Cohonen’s self-organizing maps. This presents an overview of the development of the districts throughout the entire period, by visualizing the degree of dissimilarities between the regions, their development trends – whether they are negative or positive, as well as their cohesion.

The main conclusion of the analysis is that there is no evident cohesion between the districts. To the contrary – there is one district, Sofia (capital), which significantly differs from the others in its socio-economic development. What’s more – the gap between Sofia (capital) and the other districts keeps growing. In practice, there is no visible result from the regional development policy that the government should try and implement.

The overall socio-economic state of Sofia (capital) is the highest of all the districts, which can be seen by its proximity to the “perfect region”. The districts Blagoevgrad and Varna are also close, but despite their good overall condition, they are far less developed than the capital. This conclusion is confirmed by the colour on the border between the cluster of Sofia (capital) and the other two districts – highly saturated color, that implies significant differences.

• Sofia (capital) has the best developed economy of all Bulgarian districts, followed by Varna. The weakest economic development is observed in the districts Silistra, Razgrad and Vidin.
• Sofia (capital) also has the best developed infrastructure, especially in the end of the period (2010 and 2011).
• Vidin, Lovech and Montana have the worst demographic state during the entire period, while Gabrovo demonstrates pronounced worsening trends.
• The regions with worst-developed education systems are Sliven, Targovishte, Razgrad and Silistra.
• Stara Zagora has both the best healthcare systems and worst state of the environment during the entire period.
• Unlike the other categories (economy, for instance), the social environment indicators have more pronounced dynamics. The color saturation on the map demonstrates negative development trends in the most regions, for example – Blagoevgrad, Sofia (capital), Gabrovo, Ruse, Stara Zagora and so on. In practice, Smolyan had the best social environment in the country for 2011, what’s more the positive trend is present during the entire period.

The full text of the analysis and all Cohonen maps are available here.

On February 6^th 2014 the Institute for Market Economics organized a round table discussion, as part of the project “Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development”, carried out with the financial support of the America for Bulgaria Foundation.

The discussion was attended by experts from public administration and NGOs, academics and professionals in the fields of regional development and statistics.

After a brief presentation of the main findings of the recently published second edition of the study, the participants were invited to share their thoughts on key regional development issues and to make recommendations regarding the focus of the upcoming 2014 edition of the study.

The IME team would like to thank all the experts, who attended the discussion. Their comments and recommendations are of key importance for the preparation of the upcoming third edition of the study "Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development".

On December 11th, 2013 the IME economists Desislava Nikolova and Petar Ganev visited Kyustendil in response to an invitation of the district’s governor Ivan Karakashki.

Photo:  Vladi Vladimirov, Darik - Kyustendil

The economists presented the results of a study of corruption perception in the Kyustendil district and the country, which is part of the publication " Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development 2013 ".

Kyustendil is one of the districts with the highest corruption perception levels. Businesses give an average evaluation of 2.5, while the average for the country is - 3.4. The lower the score, the higher corruption perceptions are. Citizens give 2.37, while the average for Bulgaria is 2.67.

IME presented 11 recommendations to combat corruption aimed at increasing transparency and efficiency of local administrations, while involving citizens and businesses in the process.

The event was covered in several local media outlets:

• Darik Radio Kyustendil
• Struma.com
• Kyustendil News
• Vyaranews.com

Yavor Aleksiev, Borislav Tonchev*

In the third quarter of 2013 the number of employed people decreased slightly on an annual basis after two consecutive quarters of growth in the first half of the year. In June-August 2013 the employees are 5000 less than in the same period in 2012.

However, in most districts (16 out of 28) there is an increase in the number of the employees on an annual basis. Some of the most interesting labor market trends in the third quarter are represented below:

• Compared to the same quarter of last year, the Northwest and the South Central are the best performing regions on the labor market. In these two regions all districts record an increase in the number of the employees on an annual basis.
• In the third quarter, the employment rate in four regions of Northern Bulgaria remains below 40%. These are Vidin (38,6%), Lovech (39,1%), Razgrad (39,4%) and Silistra (38,4%).
• The largest increase of the number employed people on an annual basis is observed in Varna (10,700), Sofia (7,700) and Pazardzhik (5,600). On the other hand, the largest decline is registered in Stara Zagora (-15,700), Blagoevgrad (-9,500) and Yambol (-4,800).
• The greatest increase in percentage terms in the number of employees is in Montana (8,4%), Vidin (6,2%) and Varna (5,7%). The greatest decline is in Stara Zagora (-11,3%), Targovishte (-9,2%) and Silistra (-9,0%).

Methodology of the results: In the majority of the regions the recovery of the labor market began in 2011. We use both the number of employees and the employment rate of the population over the age of 15 in order to monitor the recovery process during the period from the first quarter of 2010 till the third quarter of 2013. The tables, that precede the analysis of each statistical region, are intended to illustrate the existence of clear trends in the dynamic of the number of employees in the local economy annually. For this purpose, the second consecutive quarter of increase in the number of employees on an annual basis is highlighted in green, and every second consecutive quarter of decline in the number of employees on an annual basis - in red.

Northwest region

For the first time since 2010, the Northwest region has shown a steady increase (two consecutive quarters) in the number of employees on an annual basis. In the third quarter of 2013, the number of employed people increased in all districts compared to the same period of last year. The trends remain most clearly positive in Vidin and Pleven. An important change of direction is observed in Lovech, where there is a break, be it moderate, in the trend of annual decrease in the number of employees after 10 consecutive quarters of decline. Positive trends are recorded in Montana and Vratsa, although employment rate in both districts remains among the lowest in the country.

North Central region

Gabrovo is the only district in this region, which has had a sustainable increase in the number of employees since the summer of 2012. The district is also a leader with 49,6% employment rate during the third quarter of 2013. This sustainable growth in the number of the employees does not apply for the other four districts. Razgrad and Silistra remain two of the four districts in the whole country with an employment rate lower than 40%. In two of the last three quarters, the number of employees in Ruse falls below 90,000 compared to 105,000 in 2010.

Northeast region

For a third consecutive quarter, the employment rate in the Northeast region is increasing, mainly due to the significant increase in the number of employees during the summer months in Varna. For the first time since the summer of 2010, the number of employees in the largest district in the region approaches 200,000 people. Fairly stable is the labor market in Dobrich, which registers the highest employment rate in the region in the last two quarters due to the growing seasonal trends in the local labor market over the past three years. Since the beginning of 2012, Targovishte can’t escape from the cycle of steadily declining number of employees annually. Thus, the employment rate of that district is the lowest in the last quarter compared to the others in the region - only 41.1%.

Southwest region

The employment rate in the Southwest region has been steadily declining for three consecutive quarters. Sofia City district and Sofia district are the two districts that are exceptions to the region for the third quarter of 2013. However, they fail to offset the decline in the others, although 75% of employees across the region work in them. Only in the capital there is a steady growth in employment rate and it remains the highest (56.5%) in the country. The sharpest decline in the number of employees is in Blagoevgrad - 6.3% on annually basis.

South Central region

The number of employees in all districts of the South Central region has increased on an annual basis for the third consecutive quarter. In the third quarter of 2013, the number of employed people in this region exceeded 600,000 for the first time since the summer of 2010. Compared to the same period last year, the most remarkable growth in employment is recorded in Pazardjik and Haskovo. Although the employment rate in both districts remains below the average for the region, persistent trends in the labor market are of paramount importance, because over 35% of the employees in the whole region work there. The good data for Pazardzhik means that employment rate has reached its bottom at the end of last year, while the average index for 2013 will report values above 40%. The sustained job growth in Plovdiv and Smolyan last year, and the traditionally strong last quarters of the year in these districts, give reasons for further increase in employment rate at the end of the year.

Southeast region

There is a minimal decline in the number of employees in Burgas in the third quarter of 2013 on an annual basis, after five consecutive quarters of growth. At the same time the strong first two quarters of the year and the increasing resilience of the labor market in the winter months’ trend in recent years make reaching the highest levels of average employment in the region since 2008 a viable expectation.

The collapse of employment in Stara Zagora is surprising with regard to the good 2012 for the whole region, but is understandable against the background of lay-offs taken in a number of businesses in the district this year. Since the last quarter of 2012, the employed people in the district have been at least 10,000 less than during the same quarters of the previous year. The incurred and the expected cuts in healthcare and energy systems as well as the conclusion of construction activities surrounding “Trakia” highway had a negative impact on employment across the region.

Only Sliven district manages to maintain its employment growth, which began in the previous quarter, while Yambol struggles.

*Borislav Tonchev is an intern at IME

The study "Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development 2013" (Bulgarian version) presents the social and economic development of bulgarian districts. The study is based on 58 indicators, divided into eight categories: Economy, Administration and Taxes, Infrastructure, Demography, Education, Healthcare, Environment and Social Environment. A seperate profile of each of the districts can be found on our webpage.

The English version of the study will be available in January 2014 and will include all of the available analysis and data.

Yavor Alexiev

The speed and quality of the administrative services and the rule of law are two of the leading elements that determine local business environment. In May 2013 IME carried out a countrywide survey among 1680 companies as part of the upcoming second edition of the study “Regional profiles: Indicators of Development”[1].

Conclusions:

• For a second consecutive year the data show a connection between the assessment of businesses about the quality of administrative services and corruption perceptions.
• According to the survey results, the interaction between businesses and local district and municipal administrations is best in Varna, Burgas and Plovdiv while the worst interaction is in Veliko Turnovo, Kurdzhali and Kyustendil.
• Corruption perceptions are highest in Veliko Turnovo, Kyustendil and Pernik and lowest is in Smolyan, Montana and Targovishte.
• The differences between the assessments of the various characteristics of administrative services from the most highly rated regions to the lowest rated ones are significantly smaller than the ones observed in corruption perceptions. In other words while the level of administrative services is more or less similar across the districts, corruption perceptions are considerably different.

Business assessment of the work of and interaction with the local administration

The assessment consists of several criteria such as staff qualification, skills and attitude, speed of the administrative services, clarity of local requirements and regulations and overall corruption perception. The overall assessment of the administration’s performance in 2013 is lower (3.3/5.0) than in 2012 (3.5/5.0).

Source: IME, „Regional profiles: Indicators of Development 2013“

Note: The spread shows the difference between the highest and the lowest ratings for every single characteristic of the administrative services. The evaluation is based on a five-point scale where 1 stands for ”very bad”, 3 means “average”, and 5 means “very good”.

The attitude of the staff and their qualification are the highest rated characteristic of local administrations in Bulgaria. . Even the lowest rated districts achieve results above 3 (average).

Meanwhile the speed of the administrative service and the clarity of local requirements of the administration remain the most problematic areas. The most considerable regional differences are also connected with these two characteristics.

Trends: Some minor structural changes in the business survey make a direct comparison between data from 2012 and 2013 improper. However, it is important to note that for a second consecutive year Burgas is one of the top 3 most highly rated districts, while Kyustendil is one of the districts that receives one of the lowest ratings. Among the five best performing districts for a second consecutive year are also Smolyan and Pazardzhik, whereas the administration services in Stara Zagora are still perceived as one of the worst.

Corruption perceptions

The survey evaluates the corruption perception of local businesses in regard to the district and municipality administrations, police and judicial authorities, as well as the local Labor Inspectorate. In 2013, the overall corruption perception in the country has deteriorated from 3.4/5.0 to 3.3/5.0.

Source: IME, „Regional profiles: Indicators of Development 2013“

Note: The spread shows the difference between the highest and lowest rated districts in regard to corruption perception in each of the listed institutions. The evaluation is based on a five-point scale, where score 1 stands for “very high level of corruption”, 3 means “average levels of corruption” and 5 means “very low level of corruption”.

In terms of corruption perceptions there are serious discrepancies. The highest levels of corruption are considered to be in the municipalities and the judiciary system. The lowest levels of corruption are in the local sub-divisions of the Labor Inspectorate. Corruption is the highest in Veliko Turnovo, Kyustendil and Pernik, and the lowest levels are in Smolyan, Montana and Targovishte.

Trends: For second consecutive year, Smolyan and Targovishte are among the three regions with the lowest perception of corruption, while Pernik and Kyustendil have some of the highest. Veliko Turnovo once again ranks among the 5 regions with the highest corruption in the country.

National data

Administrative services and corruption - For a second consecutive year the data show a connection (moderate positive correlation- 0.65) between business’ assessment for the quality of administrative services and corruption in the country.

Source: IME, „Regional profiles: Indicators of Development 2013“

Note: The assessment of the performance of local administration is based on a five-point scale, where score of 1 means “very bad”, 3 is “average” and 5 is “very good”. In evaluating corruption score 1 means “very high level of corruption”, 3 is “average” and 5 - “very low level of corruption”.

Irregular payments - nearly 15% of the respondents think that illegal payments from companies in their sector to the administration are made “often” or “very often” in order to obtain public procurement contracts. Around 12 % believe that it happens “often” or ‘very often” when it comes to getting registrations and permits from local authorities.

Source: IME, „Regional profiles: Indicators of Development 2013“

Electronic services are used by 21.7% of the companies with up to 10 employees and 34.7% of the companies employing between 11 and 50 people. Large companies are the ones that most often use e-services provided by the local administration - in the last 12 months preceding the survey 50.4 % of them did so. Small and medium businesses evaluate their quality as “rather high” (3.48/5.00). The assessment of the large companies is even higher- 3.77/5.00.

Source: IME, „Regional profiles: Indicators of Development 2013“

Yavor Alexiev

It appears that the Bulgarian economy has finally started to create jobs. In the second quarter of 2013 the number of employed people was 26,5 thousand higher compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, slowing economic growth could have a reverse effect on this much awaited positive trend. The results of an IME business survey, carried out in the build-up to the study “Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development 2013” (to be published in November), indicate rather negative trends for the development of domestic labor markets in the next 12 months.

Seasonal employment plays an important role

According to the data published this month by the National Statistical Institute (NSI), the increased number of employees in seasonal industries (agriculture, hotels and restaurants etc.) during the second quarter and the growth is significantly higher than the observed growth during the previous couple of years. In comparison to 2012, there are 13 thousand newly created jobs in agriculture and 14 thousand in “Hotels and Restaurants” .Therefore, it is hard to make a definite conclusion whether these new jobs in recent months are due to general improvements in the economy or just temporary effects as a result of a strong summer season.

The dynamics of the number of employed for the first two quarters in different regions of the country also point to rather strong seasonal trends. For the period April-May 2013 most openings have been created in districts with traditionally high occupation during the summer months. Compared with the first quarter of the year, the average number of employees under labor contract during the second quarter increased by 16,8% in Burgas, 7,8 % in Varna and 8,8 % in Dobrich. Other districts with good performance this year are Targovishte and Shumen. However, the increase in the number of employees there is only 2-3%. In 2012 these rates were 13,9% in Burgas, 7,0% in Varna and 5,7% in Dobrich.

Business Expectations

In spite of the positive signs of growing employment, businesses are not quite as optimistic about the situation on the labor market in the country for this year and next.

For the purposes of the upcoming second edition of the study “Regional profiles: Indicators of Development”, in May 2013 IME conducted a survey among 1680 companies nationwide. One its goals, was to examine the expectations of businesses regarding the dynamics of the number of employees in the period June 2013-June 2014. The results are shown in the graph below, by visualizing the expectations of business representatives about increasing or decreasing the number of their employees. Results above 3 show expectations of hiring more staff. Result below 3 point to negative tendencies.

Business expectations regarding the number of employed (June 2013 - June 2014)

Source: IME, „Regional profiles: Indicators of Development 2013“

Note: The data is from May 2013.

Businesses expect that the number of employees will increase in the following 10 districts: Burgas, Targovishte, Pazardzhik, Pernik, Plovdiv, Blagoevgrad, Yambol, Dobrich, Sliven and Kardzhali. Oddly enough, only Dobrich and Targovishte are part of Northern Bulgaria. There is no expected change in the number of employees in Kyustendil and Stara Zagora and in all other districts this number is expected to fall.

Too Early for Evaluations

It seems more than clear that an exact assessment of labor market conditions in Bulgaria could be made at the end of the third quarter, when most of the seasonal workers will be dismissed. The question is whether the momentum in the labor market and perhaps in the economy in general will be sufficient to keep employment high in comparison to previous year. The successful summer season makes evaluations based on the dynamics of previous years uncertain. Employment numbers may be positive but so far business expectations remain subdued.