News

Yavor Aleksiev

After the previous parliamentary elections held in 2013 we examined the relationship between three major socio-economic factors (ethnicity, age, and occupation) and the results of the leading parties in the different districts of the country[1]. The results from the parliamentary elections held this month confirm some observations from last year – MRFMRF takes advantage of the “ethnicity” factor, BSP takes advantage of the “age” factor, CEDBCEDB takes advantage of the “employment” factor.

MRF takes advantage of the “ethnicity” factor

The distribution of votes in 2014 among districts has once again been significantly affected by the ethnic origin of the local population. In areas where the proportion of people who declare themselves Turks is over 30%, MRF won between 34.3% (Silistra) and 70.43% (Kardzhali) while nationwide, the party managed to win 14.84% of the votes. In areas with similar socio-economic profile such as Vidin and Kyustendil, in which the share of the Turkish population is smaller, the party gets respectively 6.64% and 1.47% of the votes.

Figure 1: Ethnicity and MRF election result

Source: Sources: CEC, NSI , IME calculations

The distribution of votes by district shows that MRF is the only of the 4 leading parties where there is a strong negative correlation between the share of the urban population and the election result. This means that the smaller the proportion of the urban population in one district is the higher is the MRF election result.

BSP takes advantage of the "age" factor

BSP is the only party which showed a positive correlation between the age structure of the population in most areas[2] and its tendency to vote for a given party. Its best results are achieved in districts[3] where the age dependency ratio of the population over 65 to that aged 15-64 is over 33%. This means that in these areas there are three or fewer people of working age for every person aged over 65 account for.

Figure 2: Age dependency and election result BSP

Source: NSI, CEC, IME calculations

BSP achieved its strongest result in Vidin, winning 27.93 percent of the vote. At the same time, although the relationship between the age of the population in different districts and its propensity to vote for BSP remains strong, the party failed to win in any of those nine areas. At the previous parliamentary elections, the party won in eight of them.

CEDBCEDB takes advantage of the “employment” factor

CEDB is the only party where electoral support exhibits a positive correlation with district employment rates.[4] This relationship is negativ only for BSP the results of RB and MRF show no distinctive connection with employment.

Figure 3: Employment and election result of CEDB

Source: NSI, CEC, IME calculations

CEDB’s results also show the most clearly expressed positive relationship between the share of urban population in different regions and the result of the party - in more urbanized areas CEDB wins a larger share of the vote.

The Reform bloc

The results of RB at the parliamentary elections in different districts revealed no clear relationship (positive or negative) between the votes received and the reviewed socio-economic indicators characterizing ethnicity, settlement, age structure and labor market situation.

 [1] The figures represent a conditional comparison of viarious socio-economic indicators and election results in different administrative regions. These are under no circumstances to be considered as proof of the electoral moods of citizens based on their ethnic origin, age or socio-economic status; rather, these depict common tendencies in the shaping of political preferences of groups of people living in a different social, economic, political and cultural context.

[2] The five regions where MRF’s electoral dominance can be primarily attributed to the ethnicity factor have been excluded from the comparison between the age dependency ratio and the results of BSP.

[3] Vidin, Vratsa, Gabrovo, Kyustendil, Lovech, Montana, Pernik, Pleven and Yambol.

[4] The five regions where MRF’s electoral dominance can be primarily attributed to the ethnicity factor have been excluded from the comparison between the employment rate and CEDB’s results.

Yavor Aleksiev

The upcoming third edition of the study "Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development" includes an in-depth overview of the labor market recovery in the country. The analysis of the dynamics of the number of employees by statistical regions highlighted some interesting trends in the redistribution of workforce between the different districts within them.

In three of the six statistical regions in Bulgaria there is a district that is a traditional leader in terms of employment. These are the Northeast region (Varna), the Southeast region (Sofia-capitol) and the South Central region (Plovdiv). From the starting point for the analysis of the labor market recovery (the first quarter of 2010), these districts continue to account for a large part of the employees in their respective regions.

At the beginning of 2010 51.0% of the employed in the Northeast region work in Varna, 63.1% of the employed in the South East region work in Sofia (capital) - and 48.8% of the employed in the South Central region work in Plovdiv. Due to the different dynamics of the labor market recovery in each district and region, that share deviates over the years. While in Plovdiv and Varna it remained relatively unchanged compared to the years before the crisis, Sofia (capital) employs an ever growing share of the workforce in the region - as of the second quarter of 2014 more than two thirds of the employees in the Southeast region of the country work there (Figure 1). This trend is getting stronger in the last six quarters (between the first quarter of 2013 and second quarter of 2014) due to the continuing loss of jobs in most of the other districts (most notably  Kyustendil and Blagoevgrad) and the faster pace of job creation in the capital city than the one registered in previous years.

Figure 1: Share of the employed in the Southwest region, working in Sofia-cap. (%)

Source: NSI, IME calculations

In the other three statistical regions (Northwest, North Central and Southeast) in 2010 there is no distinct leader in employment. However, in two of them there are some interesting trends.

Between the first quarter of 2010 and the second quarter of 2014 Burgas has developed into the evident leader in the number of employees in Southeast region. While the share of people working in Burgas and Stara Zagora in the beginning of the period is approximately equal, the latest data show a serious and growing advantage for Burgas. Currently 43.0% of the people employed in the region work there, compared to only 29.0% for Stara Zagora. This trend is in line with the dynamics of some leading macroeconomic indicators, which show increased investment activity (as well as increased interest from foreign countries) and intensive absorption of EU funds in Burgas.

Figure 2: Share of the employed in the Southeast region, working in Burgas and Stara Zagora (%)

Source: NSI, IME calculations

Between the first quarter of 2010 and the second quarter of 2014 Ruse gradually losses its leading position in terms of number of employees in the North Central region of the country to Veliko Turnovo. This is also the only statistical area in which the district with the greatest number of employees during the first quarter of 2010 retreats at second position. To some extend this trend is due to the similar size of the two districts – in 2013 252 thousand people lived in Veliko Tarnovo and about 230 thousand in Ruse. Despite the continuing loss of jobs the annual average employment rate for Ruse District is still a little higher than the one in VelikoTarnovo in 2013 (i.e. although the number of employees is smaller, their share in the number of local population is bigger), but the dynamics of the employees during the first two quarters of this year shows that this might change before the end of 2014, since the difference in employment rate of the population over the age of 15 of the two districts is barely 1 percentage point – 42,9% for VelikoTarnovo in 2013 and 44,0% for Ruse.

Figure 3: Share of the employed in the North central region, working in Ruse and Veliko Turnovo (%)

Source: NSI, IME calculations

The concentration of a significant part of the employed population in the country in some areas is a process that will likely continue in the future, given the overall demographic and socio-economic processes taking place in the country. The dynamics of the number of employees by districts and statistical regions shows that in South Bulgaria, these trends are more distinctive, especially because of the existence of several strong economic centers, the axis Sofia-Plovdiv-Stara Zagora-Burgas.

Detailed analysis of the labor market in each of the regions and will be made available after the publication of the third annual edition of the study "Regional Profiles: Indicators of development" in November 2014.

Yavor Aleksiev

It is widely accepted that the development of e-services and the restriction of direct contacts between businesses and the administration is one of the most effective ways to reduce both corruption and administrative burden on business. Contemporary electronic interaction reduces the risk of lost documents, delayed permits and off the table pressure from administration on business or vice versa. Although successive governments have (at least seemingly) made attempts to accelerate the adoption of e-government at national and local level, the results remain unsatisfactory, especially considering the money spent for this purpose.

For the purposes of the third annual edition of the study “Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development” the IME carried out two separate surveys, which included questions regarding the quality and scope of e-services, offered at the local level:

A sociological survey among businesses that took place in May 2014 and included 1680 companies from the entire country. Among various questions regarding the effect of various business environment factors on the local level, the survey included questions that evaluate the performance of local administrations and the scope and quality of e-services.

A survey among municipalities, which started in March 2014 and ended in May 2014. Local municipalities were sent a list of questions, according to the stipulations of the Public Information Procurement Act, and provided information about the levels of key local taxes and fees, as well as their level of implementation of “one-stop-shops” and the scope of e-services they provide. In 2013 we received answers from 226 municipalities, and in 2014 – from 28 more, which brought the total number of municipalities to 254.

The overall impression is that although municipalities state higher levels of readiness for “one-stop-shop” and e-services, progress is slow, and businesses usually only take opportunity of the simplest and most straight-forward ways of online communication. This may be the explanation behind the lack of clear statistical correlation between the scope of e-services, offered by municipalities, and businesses’ assessment of their quality.

E-services

In 2013 and 2014 the highest relative share of municipalities describe the e-services they offer as being of the third level (Interaction). This means that business customers may not only find information and download forms, but also send letters, forms and other documents via the internet; however, the administration is not obliged to answer him in the same way. Despite that, in both years more than 50% of municipalities only provide e-services from the first and second levels (56.6% in 2013 and 51.9% in 2014). This means that in most cases municipalities only have a website that businesses can use in order to receive information that has already been uploaded, or download some of the forms and documents they need, without having to physically visit the municipality.

Only 10 municipalities in 2013 and 14 municipalities in 2014 declare that they provide the highest level of e-services. A curious fact is that some of those that stated they provide e-services of the highest level in 2013 actually revised their estimations lower in 2014 (e.g. Petrich and Dobrich-city). This leads to the conclusion that some employees in the administration answer the questions incorrectly.

Graph 1: Development of e-services at the local level (municipalities’ self-assessment), number of municipalities

Source: IME survey among municipalities, 2014

One-stop-shops

Similar tendencies can be observed with regard to municipalities’ readiness of implementation of one-stop-shops. In 2013 and 2014 this type of administrative service is in its “basic”, or “developing” stage in respectively 49.1% and 49.6% of municipalities. This suggests that businesses have to come in contact with different administrative bodies or in the best case (in the “developing” stage) – to establish the initial contact at a single access point, but afterwards still have to visit structures and departments.\

The number of municipalities, which declare “excellent” readiness for the implementation of one-stop-shops, are 51 in 2013 and 52 in 2014. This means that these municipalities have a single access point for all different purposes and contact may be established in a variety of ways, including online.

Graph 2: Level of implementation of one-stop-shops (municipalities’ self-assessment), number of municipalities

Source: IME survey among municipalities, 2014

The evaluation of business

In all three annual surveys among businesses for the purposes of the study “Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development”, businesses have given a positive evaluation of the quality of local e-services. Despite that, average ratings have been decreasing – from 3.90/5.00 in 2012 to 3.54 in 2013 and 3.40 in 2014. The ratings are according to the scale from 1 to 5, where 1 means “very low quality” and 5 means “very high quality”.

It is worth noting that the share of companies that use e-services is gradually increasing – from around 30% in 2012 and 2013 to 38.6% in 2014. This is due mostly to the growing number of small and medium enterprises, which choose online communication and may be part of the explanation behind falling average ratings – e-services are being used by more and different types of enterprises, while their scope and quality is progressing relatively slowly.

Just like in previous years, there’s a clear correlation between the size of enterprises and the types of e-services they use. For example, micro- and small enterprises usually use services of the second and third levels, while bigger enterprises are inclined to use services of the third and fourth levels.

Graph 3: Types of e-services, used by businesses, %

Source: IME survey among businesses, 2014

Although businesses from all districts rate e-services positively, there’s no clear statistical correlation between the scope of e-services, offered by municipalities, and businesses’ assessment of their quality. In districts such as Varna and Stara Zagora, where many municipalities consider their e-services as highly developed, businesses rate them relatively low and below the country’s average. The district of Burgas receives the highest rating for e-services, despite the fact that only 4 of the 13 municipalities declare a third of fourth level of e-services development.

Graph 4: Businesses’ assessment of the quality of e-services, provided by local administrations; the ratings are according to the scale from 1 to 5, where 1 means “very low quality” and 5 means “very high quality”

Source: IME survey among businesses, 2014

The analysis of the data from IME’s surveys among businesses and municipalities indicate that progress in both the implementation of one-stop-shops and e-services is relatively slow. In many cases businesses don’t take advantage of all new possible ways of communication. This leads to the conclusion that there may be insufficient information about the availability of such services, and their advantages in comparison to traditional ways of communication between local administrations and businesses. There’s also a tendency of falling average ratings in regard to the quality of the e-services that local administrations do actually offer. The latter might be the result of their growing popularity among small enterprises, which usually use e-services of the first and second levels.

Yavor Aleksiev

Labor market data show positive developments in the second quarter of 2014. Although the economic activity of the population is increasing, compared to the period from April to June 2013, there is a decline in the unemployment rate (from 12.9% to 11.4%) and a rise in the employment rate (from 47.0 percent to 47.9 %) of the population over 15 years of age. These data were largely expected, given the positive signs of increasing economic activity and the gradual decrease in the number of discouraged workers in the last few quarters. The decline in the ratio of long-term unemployment is undoubtedly positive news – it fell from 7.2 to 6.6 percent on an annual basis. This suggests that some of the people, who gradually returned to the labor market over the past year and a half in search of a job, were able to find one.

The rise in the number of people employed in Q2 2014 (39.6 thousand) is practically the same with the one observed in Q1 2014 (39.1 thousand). These data are undoubtedly positive and imply a continuing trend of job creation. Even so, the pace of the recovery is still relatively slow, with regard to the number of jobs lost during the crisis. In May 2014 we estimated that if this pace of job creation continues, the economy will need 8 years to recover the number of jobs lost since Q1 2008. This could happen[1] somewhere in the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. Bearing in mind the slowing down of the European economy and the deterioration of the macroeconomic perspectives of the business environment in Bulgaria in the short term, the persistence of this trend looks unlikely. In order to keep up the current quarterly job creation, the economy will have to generate a total of 73 thousand jobs in Q3 2014. At the same time, the low economic activity[2] of young people and the problems that they share with people with technical education trying to enter the labor market, continue to be a cause for concern. Both are the result of the structural problems of the Bulgarian labor market that render these two groups, together with the low-skilled workers, the most vulnerable to potential shocks in the recovery that is taking place.

Regional Overview

In Q2 2014 the number of people employed rises in 14 of the 28 districts in the country. A significant part of the annual rise is due to positive developments in Sofia (capitol). In Q2 2014 the number of people employed there has increased by 19.8 thousand. Notable annual increases are also registered in Plovdiv (11.4 thousand), Haskovo (7.8 thousand), Burgas (6.7 thousand) and Veliko Tarnovo (6.5 thousand). A positive recovery trend is also evident in Varna, although its pace remains moderate and below expectations.

Four out of the five districts in the South Central region of the country register at least 6^th consecutive quarter of an annual increase in the number of people employed. These are Plovdiv, Haskovo, Kurdzhali[3] and Pazardzhik. The only exception is Smolyan, where the number of people employed drops slightly in comparison to the same period of last year.

Since the start of the year the number of people employed is yet to register annual increases in ten of the country’s districts – in some of them these negative trends are long-term. For example Q2 marks the 7^th consecutive quarter of decrease in Silistra and Stara Zagora and 5^th and 6^th in Blagoevgrad and Ruse – respectively.

It is evident that the Southern Central region of the country continues to be at the forefront of the labor market recovery in the country. Separate districts from the South East and the South West regions of the country (like Sofia and Burgas) have also contributed. Labor markets in the North West region remain in deep crisis, while the North Central region shows some signs of improvement. A more significant increase in the number of people employed is evident in North East Bulgaria, with Varna and Shumen showing the largest improvement and Targovishte finally breaking a negative trend of nine consecutive quarters of falling number of people employed on an annual basis in the period October 2011 – December 2014.

Yavor Aleksiev

The data on household income level dynamics[1] in the last 10 years indicate a growing gap between the capital and the poorest districts in the country. Tha annual average growth rate of income levels in the period 2004-2013 is 12.79% in Sofia (cap.), compared to a national average of 8.50%. Income rises the most slowly in Lovech – by just 2.90% annually.

The statistical effect of the significant average annual rate of increase of income in the capital, together with the large and growing number of its population, is that in the period 2004-2013 there are only six districts in the entire country in which the average annual rate of income level increase is faster than the national average. Apart from Sofia (cap.) these are Plovdiv, Stara Zagora, Pernik, Pleven and Yambol. In the other 22 districts of the country the annual average rate of household income increase is lower than the national average, despite the fact that income levels themselves are higher than the ones in some of the before mentioned six districts.

Graph 1: Average annual growth rate of the total income per household member in the period 2003 – 2014, %

Source: NSI, IME’s calculations

When will the other districts catch-up?

If the annual average rate of increase of income levels in the period 2004-2013 stays the same in the future, catching up with the capital would be impossible,

With this in mind, in order to illustrate the gap between the capital and the rest of the districts, we presume that income levels in separate districts continue to rise with their annual average rate for the period 2004-2013, while at the same time income levels in Sofia (cap.) stay on their 2013 levels.

Graph 2: When the rest of the country’s district will catch up to the capital

Source: NSI, IME’s calculations

If income levels in Sofia stopped rising in 2013 the first districts that would catch-up to the capital are Pernik (2016), Pleven and Stara Zagora (2017). A few years later come Plovdiv (2018), Varna, Gabrovo and Yambol (2019). The last districts to do so would be Vidin (2033), Sliven (2039) and Lovech (2044).

This dynamic is, of course, highly conditional, but it provides a good overview of the degree to which income levels in different districts lag behind the ones in the capital.

It is important to note that the annual average rate of income growth depends mainly from the condition of local labor markets, which is due to the fact that income from working salaries generates more than 50% of the total income of Bulgarian households. The demographic structure of the population in different districts is also important – the larger the share of senior citizens in a district, the larger the share of income from pensions. For example, pensions account for just 14.1% of household income in Sofia (cap.) and 32.0% in Vidin. The large share of income from pensions generally suggests not only a lower income level base, but also a slower growth, due to the administrative character of their initial setting and follow-up increases.

At this stage there are no signs that these tendencies will change any time soon. What’s more – the continuing rise of income levels in the midst of the economic crisis and the recovery that followed, coupled with the traditionally high economic activity of the local population make the gap grow even faster than in previous periods.

An IME study into the main factors, determining economic development, measured as GDP per capita, shows that the leading from statistical point of view prerequisites for faster growth are the quality of human capital, local infrastructure and entrepreneurship. The gap between income levels in Sofia (cap.) and the other districts may be narrowed only by increasing efforts to attract foreign investment, improved education, infrastructure development and the facilitation of a business-friendly regulatory environment.

Zornitsa Slavova

For the purposes of the third consecutive edition of “Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development” the IME acquired data about the condition of the road network at the district level. These data are collected by the Road Infrastructure Agency (RIA), which evaluates the condition of the republican road network (highways, first, second, and third class roads) using a three-staged scale – good, average and poor.

In 2013 39,6% of the roads are in good condition, a decrease of 0.7% compared to last year. At the same time the data vary significantly between different districts. The condition of the road network is best in Sliven – 79.3% are in good condition, and only 14.4% are in poor condition. There are 5 more districts where over 50% of the roads are in good condition – Stara Zagora (53.4%), Pazardzhik (52.6%), Targovishte (52%), Blagoevgrad (51.9%) and Yambol (50.3%). At the other end is Vratsa, where only 17.9% of the roads are evaluated as being in good condition, and as many as 44.2% are classified aspoor.. in the quality of the road network in Vratsa keeps decreasing. In 2012 26.7% of roads were classified as good - a drop by 8.8%, which is the second largest after Haskovo, where the part of roadsin good condition decreases by 10.4%, thus dropping to 33.6% in 2013. Among the districts with a relatively low share of roads in good condition are also Montana (29.1%), Ruse(29%), Sofia district (28.6%), Burgas (27.1%), Veliko Tarnovo (25.7%) and Kardzhali (25.5%).

The biggest increase of the share of roads in good condition is observed in Shumen – from 19% in 2012 to 36.3% in 2013 or 17,3 p.p. increase. A continued rehabilitation of 40.5 km of the I-7 road Shumen – Veliki Preslav – Varbitsa is expected In 2014. This will improve the share of roads in good quality even further. The construction of the ‘Hemus’ highway is also progress, despite problems.

Overall, half of the districts have their share of good quality roads increasing, and the other half – decreasing. The map above shows that the share of roads in good condition in Southern Bulgaria is higher. Te total share roads in good condition to the north of Stara Planina is 36.4% while south of the mountain it reaches 45,1%. This is mostly due to the fully built “Trakia” highway and the fact that most big infrastructural projects concentrated in Southern Bulgaria.

The poll, which was conducted in May 2014 for the “Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development” study, shows that one of three companies claim that the quality of infrastructure in their district has a negative influence on their business. The worst resulsts are in Vratsa, where 58.3% of entrepreneurs state that they suffer from low quality infrastructure. This also holds true for about half of companies in other districts – Gabrovo (51.7%), Silistra (48.3%) and Montana (46,6%)– also districts in the northern part of the country.

Building up a good infrastructure has been a priority of the last few governments. The lack of quality roads and convenient transport connections between districts can seriously interfere with their further economic growth.

Yavor Aleksiev

In June 2014 the IME organized six regional roundtables focused on important issues of regional development. The first three events were held in Blagoevgrad, Plovdiv and Stara Zagora in the second week of June. The main impressions of the IME regarding South Bulgaria are available here. The meetings were attended  by a number of local businesses and NGOs as well as local and regional authorities. The round tables were organized with the active support of the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCI). The series of roundtables is part of the preparation of the forthcoming third edition of the "Regional Profile: Indicators of Development", published with the financial support of the "America for Bulgaria".

The economic recovery in Northern Bulgaria continues to be barely noticeable. In some places (such as the Silistra District) even increasingly negative trends are observed. With regard to the labor market sustainable improvement is noticeable only in Northeastern Bulgaria, especially in the districts of Varna and Dobrich. Despite positive trends in these two districts and generally positive expectations that were shared by businesses in a survey, conducted by IME in May, employers' organizations are skeptical about further recovery in the labor market this year. They point out four main reasons:

• continuing uncertainty about the "South Stream" project;
• geopolitical crisis in Ukraine, which is a leading export market for many companies in the North East and the North Central Region;
• potential adverse effects of bad weather on agricultural production;
• expectations for declining flow of tourists from Russia and Ukraine, resulting in a weaker tourist season

The continuing political instability and the populist rhetoric of some parties in Parliament have a strong negative impact on foreign investments. As a result, some investment projects in the industrial sector in Gabrovo have been frozen or terminated. Another serious problem for Gabrovo is the lack of appropriate municipal land, which can be used to attract potential investors. According to representatives of both local business and local government, in many cases the ownership of such lands is not settled, or they are already taken-up by old factories, which although privatized, have not been active for years. Communication between the municipality, potential investors and the current owners of such lands and factories is very difficult, which prevents their sale/rent and use.

Local administrations are very concerned about the potential suspension of some European programs. A recent example is the municipality of Troyan (Lovech), which just a few days ago had to borrow 5 million BGN to settle payments with the companies implementing the project for the city’s integrated water cycle. Suspension of funds under OP "Environment" can have negative consequences on the financial state of this and other municipalities in the region.

The effect of the opening of Danube Bridge-2 is assessed as positive, but the poor condition of the road network in much of the region and the lack of highway roads in the Northwest and the North Central region of the country hamper further potential benefits of the facility.

The lack of adequately educated young staff is a serious problem, especially in areas such as Vratsa and Veliko Tarnovo. There are no examples of successful collaboration between local businesses, local governments and educational institutions. Educational equipment is outdated. Another serious problem is the lack of strategic investors and large companies in the North West region of the country, with the notable exception of NPP "Kozloduy".

There is a positive attitude towards the idea of ​​increasing the financial authority and independence of municipalities (e.g. retaining some part of the personal income tax) in order to provide additional incentives for local governments to attract investment.