News

Yavor Aleksiev

The regional analysis of 2016 NSI and EA data for the development of the labor market in the country shows that despite the ongoing decline of  unemployment, job creation is gradually losing pace in many regions of the country.

Based on the data published thus far, we expect an average annual decline in the number of the employed aged 15-64 in 2016 with nearly 20 thousand people compared to the previous year. Nevertheless we expect aslight increase in the average employment rate in the same age group – up to 63,4% (compared to 62,9% from the prior year)- due to the rapidly declining population of the country.

On the basis of the quarterly data we can expect a drop in the employment rate by more than 1percentage point in 5 of the 28 districts in the country and an increase of over 1 percentage point in 11 districts.

In 2016 the employment rate decreased in all districts of Northwestern Bulgaria – the largest decline is observed in the following districts – Lovech (2.2 pp), Vidin (1.8 pp) and Pleven (1.7 pp). While trends in Vidin and Pleven  have been relatively positive, in the other three districts (especially Vratsa) the consequences of the crisis are clearly visible and the employment rate remains far from the pre-crisis levels.

In 2016 Vratsa is expected to register the lowest employment rate since 2005 and so become the district with the lowest employment rate in the country. Lovech (52.4%) and Montana (53.3%) are respectively third and fourth in this negative ranking, while the second place goes to Silistra (52.2%). EA data  show that  the Northwest region of the country has the largest concentration of municipalities with unemployment rate above 25%. Except for the regional centers Montana, Vratsa, Pleven and Lovech the only other municipality in which the unemployment level is below 10% is Troyan.

Employment in Veliko Tarnovo kept its level from the last year (65%), which is the highest  since 2003. The number of the employed people in the district shows a decline for the recent quarters yet still remains above 100,000 people despite the fall of the population of the district. Employment in Gabrovo still remains fairly high although it has not reached the levels of 2008 -2009.

The most stable positive trend of employment growth was observed in the district of Razgrad, yet due to the low base it remains significantly lower than the average for the region and for the country. After a long crisis period, improvement was observed in two other districts of the North Central Region - Ruse (in 2015 and 2016) and Silistra (2016). The latter, however, remains with the second lowest employment rate in the country. Ruse, in turn, marked seventh consecutive quarter of growth in the number of employees on an annual basis at the end of 2016, although the pace of job creation is gradually slowing down.

All districts in the Northeastern region of the country, with the exception of Varna, recorded an increase in employment in 2015 and 2016. Dobrich and Shumen respectively reached the record-breaking 62.6% and 61.2%.

Employment in Targovishte has increased  for three consecutive years, reaching 53.6%, but remains far from the pre-crisis levels and is among the lowest in the country. After registering a record of 68.4% in 2015, employment in Varna declined to 65.9%. Nevertheless, it remains the highest in the region and the fourth highest in the country.

The Southeastern region of the country is the only one in which the employment rate in 2016 grew in each of the districts. The recovery of the labor market in Burgas ended (in line with the IME forecasts) and now we can safely talk about an expansion. The average employment rate will be higher than the one from 2015 and will reach a record of 63,6%. The expansion also covers smaller municipalities such as Kameno and Aitos in which the unemployment rate (according to EA) in 2016 droped below 10%.

The data on the development of the labor marker in the other three districts (Sliven, Stara Zagora and Yambol) are also positive, given the fact that Yambol has surpassed and Sliven is approaching its pre-crisis level of employment. At the same time, the only municipality in the district of Sliven where the unemployment rate in 2016 was below 10% is Nova Zagora. Despite being part of the district of Sliven, its territorial location between the regional centers Sliven and Stara Zagora and the data for the daily labor migration show that its economy is rather bounded with the Western district - Stara Zagora. The labor market in the district of Stara Zagora continues to be fragmented and in the two of the municipalities, Kazanlak and Stara Zagora, unemployment is below 5% and in Radnevo and Galabovo - below 10%. The situation in municipalities such as Maglizh, Nikolaevo, Gourkovo and Bratya Daskalovi still remains critical, given the fact that in some of them unemployment is even above the levels of 2011.

The past year can be considered rather uneventful  in terms of the employment in the South Central region of the country. Employment in the districts of Plovdiv and Smolyan remained stable, but is still about 1 percentage point lower than its peak in 2008. Quarterly data for both districts, however, clearly shows a gradual deterioration in the second half of 2016, as the number of people employed in both of them has decreased on an annual basis.
Positive trends were observed mainly in the district of Haskovo. The employment rate reached pre-crisis levels and unemployment in the district center and in Dimitrovgrad is declining. Pazardjik registered a modest increase of the employment rate up to 60.3%.

Though we expect the average annual number of the people employed in the capital city to set a new record, the gradual increase in population means that the capital city has not reached its pre-crisis employment rate (73.9% in 2008). It is Sofia (capital), however, that is the main engine of the process of the job creation at a national level in 2016.

The data are positive for the districts of Blagoevgrad and Kyustendil are also positive as the latter is already approaching pre-crisis levels of employment of the population aged 15-64. Employment in the big district of Sofia and Pernik decreases as quarterly data suggests an improvement at the end of the year for Pernik and further deterioration in Sofia (district).

In conclusion

IME’s assessment of the labor markets in 2016, prepared on the basis NSI and EA data, shows that job creation is slowing down or has stopped altogether in many of the country’s districts. The data on the development of the labor market in the Northwestern part of the country is extremely worrying, especially in regard to the districts of Vratsa, Lovech and Montana. The only region in which we observe a growth of employment across the board  is the Southeastern one, though the recovery of some districts (such as Stara Zagora) remains extremely uneven.

The average annual rates for 2016 which we forecast relate to the employment of the population aged 15-64 and are based on a quarterly data from NSI.

Silviya Chomakova, Miroslav Hadjiiski*

The continuous decline of the size of the population in a number of Bulgarian regions leads to more and more glaring ratios between the number of municipal workers and the people of those municipalities. This can be seen clearly on the map below, based on Ministry of Finance three-month data on the financial condition of the municipalities, including information about the number of municipal workers.

The Ministry of Finance data shows that the municipalities with the smallest administration to population ratio are Dobrich, Burgas, Sofia and Ruse – under 2 municipal employees per 1000 people. The situation is similar in other regional centers – the number of municipal employees is quite small relative to the total population.

This is quite different in the smaller municipalities, where we can see up to 10 times higher municipal employees to the total population ratios at times. A good example is Trekliano municipality in the region of Kyustendil, where there are 35 municipal workers and only 889 people. The municipalities of Boinica (1143 people), Kovachevtsi (1760) and Makresh (1438) are similar – there there are more than 20 administration employees per 1000 people.

Two of the aforementioned municipalities, Boinica and Makresh, are located in Vidin region, where a big ratio of administration workers compared to the total population can also be observed in the municipalities of Gramada, Novo selo and Kula. This data shows that even though a territorial-administrative reform is currently not on the agenda, it simply cannot be avoided in the future, especially if the current rights and obligations of the municiplaties remain the same or even increase. There are some municipalities where the local administration is among the largest employers – a fact that, alongside with the issues of public spending effectiveness, raises major concerns about the political processes on local level.

Major differences in the ratio between municipal workers and the local population can also be observed on the district level. Here we must point out that the data is from two different sources – the official yearly reports of the municipalities (published in 2010 and 2014) and Ministry of Finance data(form 2016), and for this reason they individual data points may not be fully comparable.

There is a declining number of municipal employees per 1000 people in some parts of the country. Dobrich is one of the best examples for this trend, since in 2014 there were 7,18 municipal employees per 1000 people, while in 2016 their number declined to 4,35 per thousand. A similar trend can also be observed in other regions such as Plovdiv, Yambol, Haskovo and Gabrovo. The overall population size and the number of municipal employees here are linked proportionally – as the size of the population declines, so does the number of municipal employees in those regions.

The opposite trend is observed in the regions of Kardjali, Varna, Kyustendil, Vratsa, Pernik and Silistra. The rise in the number municipal workers in Kardjali can be seen clearly in the table (in 2014 there were 6,72 administration employees per 1000 people, whereas in 2016 the number rises to 7,76). This drastic increase in this ratio is the result of the decline of the size of the overall population, combined with an increase in the number of municipal workers keeps; this is true for Kardjali and all of the aforementioned regions.

Ceteris paribus, the declining population of Bulgaria should result in a decline in the size of the administration, especially in the regions where there is a steady trend of negative natural and mechanical growth. Turning the municipal administrations into the main employer in those regions leads to a number of problems, especially in terms of the functioning of local democracy. In addition, the vicinity of small municipalities with high municipal employees to population ratios (such as Trekliano) and big municipalities with low ratio (such as Kyustendil), once more points to the need of a territorial-administrative reform.

Yavor Aleksiev

The recovery of the labor market continued in 2016 although at a slower pace compared to 2015. The improvement is clearly visible not only at district, but also at municipal level, especially with regard to the increasing number of municipalities with relatively low unemployment rate.

According to data from the Employment agency, which the Institute for market economics requested and received, there are already 16 municipalities in which the unemployment rate is below 5% (in dark blue on the map) and another 75 municipalities in which the rate is below 10% (in light blue on the map). In 2013 when the labor market crisis is at its peak the number of those municipalities was 3 and 41 respectively.

In parallel with the overall favorable trends there is also a stable high rate of unemployment in many territories. Even in 2016 there are 10 municipalities in which the unemployment rate is above 50% as well as another 56 municipalities in which the rate varies from 25% to 50%. Although, there is a decline compared to the rates of 2013, the situation in a lot of the municipalities in those two groups is similar to the levels of 2011 which means that there has not been a significant improvement of the economic situation in most parts in our country.

On regional level there is faster improvement in the Southern part of the country - compact groups of municipalities with low unemployment rates are observed near the capital city, Plovdiv, Stara Zagora and Burgas. In Northern Bulgaria such regions are Sevlievo-Gabrovo-Veliko Turnovo and Varna-Dobrich.

Additionally to the regional centers, excluding Vidin, unemployment rate below 10% in Northeastern Bulgaria is observed only in municipalities in Troyan and Apriltsi. Despite the presence of number of municipalities with low unemployment rate in the Northeastern part of Bulgaria, there are also groups of neighboring municipalities with very high rate of unemployment.

The data from the Employment agency show that in the country there are many municipalities that are still bypassed by the overall improvement of the economic situation in the country at least as far as the notable positive effects on the labor market are concerned. Among the reasons for that are weak business activity in neighboring municipalities as well as comparatively low labor mobility of the population in the mentioned regions and also because of problems with the qualification and educational level of the working population.

More and more regions in the country have already recovered from the economic crisis. This can be seen in the gross production data as well as the data on investments and employment.

In 2014 the Bulgarian economy finally managed to overcome the consequences of the crisis and the gross domestic product in real terms exceeded its pre-crisis level. The economies of 9 regions already reached the levels of the pre-crisis gross domestic product. In the other 19 regions, however, the real GDP is still lower compared to2008. It seems that all regions in Northwestern Bulgaria are yet to overcome the impact of the crisis on their economies. Meanwhile, the economies of North-central and Northeastern Bulgaria are already approaching their pre-crisis production levels. Despite the fact that in South-central Bulgaria the recovery from the crisis has not finished yet, Plovdiv is an enormous exception and already reports real aggregated production nearly 9 per cent higher than the pre-crisis rate. This is due to the considerable investments in several rapid-growing sectors such as the outsourcing industry and production of car parts, which the district attracted over the last years.

As far as investment is concerned, the recovery process is also becoming more and more visible on the regional level. While foreign direct investment stagnated in the recent years, fixed assets expenditures, which are the other key investment indicator, show a more optimistic picture. About 1/3 of the regions already report assets expenditures that exceed the pre-crisis levels. This is mainly due to the increased utilization of EU funds in the 2014-2015 period as a result of the end of the previous programming period and the last possibility to utilize its funds in 2015.

The larger issue, however, is how much do EU funds help to bridge the gap between the average European level of wealth and the Bulgarian ones, on the one hand, and to reduce the inequalities within the country, on the other, i.e. whether there is cohesion, which is the main objective of these funds. The analysis of the Institute for market economics shows that most districts report cohesion in GDP per capita with the average European level since 2007. In Sofia (capital) the GDP per capita is already equal to the EU average – in other words Sofia is already European. The capital city concentrates a growing share of the economic activity in the country (nearly 40% at last count) and creates large income gap between North and South Bulgaria. If Sofia is taken out of the accounts, the GDP per capita wages and income in North and South Bulgaria are almost equal. In the most districts, however, GDP per capita is barely between 20 and 40% of the EU. average.

In the same time there is no a significant statistical relation between the pace of cohesion, on one hand, and the absorption of EU funds, on the another, i.e. the increasing of the wealth in most districts and the “catching up” with the average European level apparently is not a result of EU funding.

Furthermore, cohesion inside the country is not observed - on the contrary, the differences between the regions are growing. This distancing process is particularly intense before 2008. After a drop before 2012 this trend is again observed in the 2013-2014 period.

The deepening of the differences in development inside the country is also substantiated by our cluster analysis which groups the regions based on similarities and differences. Only Sofia (capital) has an overall favorable socio-economic profile as once again it sets itself apart as an independent cluster i.e. there is no other district in the country which resembles its conditions and development. In the same time the group of the profiles, characterized with poor socio-economic development is still larger than that of the regions with favorable conditions. This analysis outlines the poor socio-economic conditions of Northwestern Bulgaria, and also ever more clearly the economic problems of the North-central region.

This observations support the conclusion that regional policy in Bulgaria does not bear any fruit. The goals declared in strategies and laws have not been achieved, on the contrary - the differences are deepening, and so are problems. The analysis raises the question if the reliance on utilization of EU funds is the way towards reaching sustainable and strategic development. It becomes more and more clear that the utilization of EU funds is becoming the primary goal of policy in itself, instead of means for its implementation.

The differences in development are especially visible in the labor marker. 2014 and 2015 were particularly good in terms of creation of new jobs in the country. Despite that, 8 regions did not manage to catch on this process in 2015. It is no surprise that many of those regions have serious structural problems – Vratsa, Montana, Silistra, Kurdzhali. Unemployment rates fell in all regions without exception in 2015 but in several regions (including the aforementioned four), this was due to a drop in economic activity, not the creation of new jobs. In these regions part of the unemployed stop actively seeking jobs and leave the workforce.

In the same time in a number of districts the workforce shortage problem is growing. The lack of suitable candidates with both vocational as well as higher education, in a number of fields limits the growth potential of regional economies. Currently around 1/3 of the industrial enterprises report the lack of workers as a major restraint for their further development, while more than 70 % of the small and medium enterprises claim that the shortage of workforce is the greatest obstacle for their business.

The steady decline of the range and quality of the educational system indicators in most regions deepens the imbalances between supply and demand on the labor market. The share of students leaving school prematurely in the primary and secondary stages of education now reaches a country average of 2,8 % - the highest since 2006. In the same time the average matriculation grade in ‘’Bulgarian language and literature’’ went down to 4,17 in 2016 – the lowest result since the introduction of matriculation exams. The share of “fail” grades is on a record high: almost 9 % of the students could not pass the examination. The least developed regions – Silistra, Razgrad, Kardjali and Montana, for instance – are on the bottom of the rating, which further reduces their chances for catching up in the long-term.

The negative demographic trends in the whole country also continue to put pressure on the labor market. Even the capital is not spared, since its natural growth is on its lowest level since 2007. Currently there are four regions where the people above 65 years old are twice as many as the children (0-14 years old) – Vidin, Gabrovo, Kyustendil and Pernik. Only six regions keep attracting incoming people from other regions – Sofia(district), Sofia (municipality), Burgas, Haskovo, Varna and Plovdiv. Meanwhile, among the biggest ‘’workforce donors’’ are Smolyan, Razgrad, Vidin and Vratsa, which leads to their fast depopulation and even worse perspectives for their future development.

Generally, IME’s regional development analysis shows that in 2014-2015 even more regions were able to overcome the effects of the crisis on investment and the labour market. In the same time, however, about 1/3 of the districts suffer from deep structural problems that hinder them from reaching their pre-crisis levels of production, employment and investment flows, and those districts depopulate fast. This uneven development of the country leads to a shrper increase of the differences between the regions. The intense utilization of European funds in the last two years did not help at all for overcoming those differences. An observation that comes forth is that the European funds utilization has turned into a policy goal in its own right, which substitutes the long-term regional development policy and leads to a permanent dependency of the local budgets from these funds.

November 29th, 2016 | 11:00 - 12:00

BTA Pressclub

The IME will present the fifth annual edition of Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development on November 29th, 2016. Some of the main topics that will be discussed are:

• which districts have already recovered from the crisis and which are yet to do so;
• Is Sofia the main difference between Northern and Southern Bulgaria;
• has investment turned after the crisis;
• do EU funds support the cohesion amonf districts;
• in hwich parts of the country is the labor market recovery losing momentum;
• what is the state of municipal budgets and how is the financial consolidation going;
• is there a trend towards higher taxes

The results will be presented by:

Desislava Nikolova, chief economist, IME

Petar Ganev, senior economist, IME

Yavor Alexiev, economist, IME

Aleksander Tsvetkov, Regiostat

For more information, please contact Mrs. Vessela Dobrinova (02/952 62 66, vessela@ime.bg)

Desislava Nikolova

In 2014 the Bulgarian economy finally managed to overcome the effects of the last economic crisis, as the national real GDP surpassed its pre-crisis level. Nevertheless, the recovery is yet to occur in most of the country’s regions.

Real GDP has still not reached its 2008 level in 19 of Bulgaria’s 28 districts. These districts are scattered throughout the entire country, with (unsurprisingly) the North-West region being the only one in which none of the districts (Vidin, Montana, Pleven, Lovech and Vratsa) have recovered.

The other two northern regions are still recovering, but are close to the “finish line” – i.e. the pre-crisis level of production. The districts, whose economies are front running the recovery in these regions and have already overcome the effects of the crisis, are Veliko Turnovo and Razgrad in the North Central region and Varna and Dobrich in the North-East region.

As of 2014 the South Central region is also still “under water” and its real GDP is yet to reach the 2008 levels. In this region, though, the district of Plovdiv remains the great exception. Due to significant investment in the last few years, Plovdiv’s real GDP is already 8.5% higher than back in 2008.

The South-West and South-East regions have already reached real GDP levels that are 2-3% higher than before the crisis. The districts that lead the recovery process in these regions are Sofia (cap._ and Sofia (district) in South-West Bulgaria and Stara Zagora and Yambol in South-East Bulgaria.

Considering the fact that Bulgaria’s real GDP growth accelerated to 3% in 2015 (nearly twice the 2014 level), it is quite probable that other districts have also already reached their pre-crisis levels. In 2015 employment levels increased in most of the country’s districts, which implies the continuing spread of positive economic trends. The 2015 regional GDP data will show which districts face more than simply cyclical problems, but rather structural issues such as lack of investment, rapidly deteriorating demographics, lack of qualified labour force, low level of infrastructural development or other factors, which hinder the development of these regions.

Nikolay Slavkov*

This article compares Northern and Southern Bulgaria based on three major income and standard of living indicators:

• GDP per capita
• Average annual household income
• Average annual gross salary

According to some economists a true comparison between North and South Bulgaria cannot be made without excluding the impact of the capital city Sofia of the analysis data. For years, Sofia-city has differed from any other region in the country and it is claimed that the better results shown by South Bulgaria is solely the result of this. So here after the comparison of South and North Bulgaria we added another indicator that excludes Sofia-city from the South Bulgaria.

Since the year 2000 the gap between North and South Bulgaria is constantly increasing and this effect accelerates with the onset of the economic crisis in the country in 2009. What is interesting, however, is the data for South Bulgaria excluding Sofia. It shows that there is a similar development in the region and North Bulgaria, but again a change occurred with the onset of the economic crisis in 2009. It is obvious that the economies in North Bulgaria received a  more serious blow by the crisis and then they gradually managed to overcome the consequences of the economic shock and reach the average level of GDP per capita in South Bulgaria (except Sofia) in 2014. The probable cause of the deeper crisis in Southern Bulgaria (excluding Sofia) is, on one hand, the fact that the main economic centers that attract investments are located there. On the other hand, in North Bulgaria the prerequisite for the lack of such investments is the poor demographic structure and poor infrastructure which is also an obstacle to a more rapid recovery in the region after the crisis.

The dynamics of wages in the Southern and Northern region is also interesting. As expected, the gap between South and North Bulgaria  is deepening and over the years this trend has been sustainable. It can be seen be observed, however, that comparing wages in South Bulgaria to the ones in North Bulgaria after Sofia-city is excluded from the southern part of the country, that both series have relatively identical trends over the years with minor differences. The data are surprising against the overall worse economic development of the North, and probably can be attributed to a certain arbitration of the labor force, for instance due to internal migration between regions, wages on both sides of the Balkan are almost equalized.

The last indicator used to compare the two parts of the country is household income. The capital is again the area that pulls Southern Bulgaria ahead and maintains the difference between South and North Bulgaria. In the statistical series where the capital is not included, however, there is a lag , albeit a slight one. This is due to the fact that here not only gross wages are included, but also some other indicators such as pensions, other compensations and other welfare, rent income and other income, where North Bulgaria has had an edge in the last years.

Apparently, when the the capital is exuded from the data, North Bulgaria does not yield to the southern part of the country according to any of the three indicators compared here. Unfortunately, this supports the claim thatat the better results of the south Bulgaria are owed to the capital, despite the rapid growth of Burgas and the major investments attracted by Plovdiv and Stara Zagora.

*Intern at IME